5G use cases to drive growth in cellular IoT module market
Report finds 5G will be preferred for Industrial 4.0 applications like digital twins, robotics and automation as well as connected and autonomous mobility.
Global cellular IoT module shipments are expected to surpass 1.2 billion units by 2030 with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12 per cent, a new study finds.
According to the latest Global Cellular IoT Module Forecast from Counterpoint Research, the shipments will be mainly driven by 5G, NB-IoT and 4G Cat 1 bis technologies.
Growth of 5G
The report finds 5G will be the fastest growing (60 per cent) technology, followed by 4G Cat 1 bis, during 2022-2030.
With 5G becoming mature, large module vendors like Quectel, Fibocom, MeiG, Foxconn, Thales, Telit and Sierra Wireless will consolidate their positions in the global cellular IoT module market. Counterpoint notes ‘longtail’ module vendors will struggle with scale and partnerships.
“With the ongoing sunset of 2G and 3G networks across the world, most of the demand has been shifting to LPWA, 4G Cat 1 and 4G Cat 1 bis technologies until now,” said Soumen Mandal, senior research analyst at Counterpoint. “NB-IoT will still remain popular in parts of Asia, including China, and Europe, while 4G Cat-1-based modules proliferate over the next few years.
“With the ongoing sunset of 2G and 3G networks across the world, most of the demand has been shifting to LPWA, 4G Cat 1 and 4G Cat 1 bis technologies until now”
With LPWA technologies such as NB-IoT, LTE-M and 4G Cat-1 driving this initial adoption of cellular IoT, the report states global cellular IoT market will transition from 4G to 5G in the rest of this decade.
This transition will be faster compared to the transition from 2G/3G to LPWA/4G in the IoT segment. 5G will be the leading technology in the global cellular IoT module market, followed by NB-IoT and 4G Cat 1 bis.
Counterpoint estimates that cumulative 5G shipments (excluding 5G RedCap) will reach 2.5 billion units, growing at a CAGR of 60 per cent between 2022 and 2030.
“Smart meter, industrial, router/CPE, automotive and POS will be the top five applications in 2030 in terms of shipments”
By the end of this decade, Counterpoint predicts the introduction of 6G technology for IoT. However, the analyst cautions that 6G will be limited to higher-end applications such as enterprise and broadband in the initial years of adoption.
“Smart meter, industrial, router/CPE, automotive and POS will be the top five applications in 2030 in terms of shipments,” said Neil Shah, vice-president research at Counterpoint.
“5G will be preferred for Industrial 4.0 (like robotics, automation and digital twins), router/CPE (like FWA and private networks) and automotive (like connected and autonomous mobility) applications, LPWA will be preferred for utilities (smart meter) and 4G Cat 1 bis and 5G RedCap for POS applications.”
He added: “China leads in 5G adoption in the global cellular IoT module market. However, North America and Europe will have great potential in the future. 5G adoption in emerging markets such as India and Latin America will also grow faster and 5G RedCap may become popular in these regions.”
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